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29 Apr

(Trump appears likely to lose the popular vote, which would make him only the fifth elected president to do so and still win office.) White non-Hispanic voters preferred Trump over Clinton by 21 percentage points (58% to 37%), according to the exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool.

Romney won whites by 20 percentage points in 2012 (59% to 39%).

This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980.

For example, in 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%.

In 20, non-college whites also preferred the Republican over the Democratic candidate but by less one-sided margins (61%-36% and 58%-40%, respectively). In 2012, Romney won college whites by a somewhat wider margin in 2012 (56%-42%).

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Trump’s advantage among this group is the same as John Mc Cain’s margin in 2008 (51%-47%).

Due largely to the dramatic movement among whites with no college degree, the gap between college and non-college whites is wider in 2016 than in any past election dating to 1980.